Update on the Russian Presidential Election Results

An update on this story...

It appears that Team Putin/Medvedev got what they wanted. Voter turnout was the highest on record (Official turnout in Chechnya was 91%, which was interesting, seeing as I didn't think that 91% of the registered population still lived there at all), and Medvedev won with a high percentage of the vote, 67.5%, the combination of both which made his victory look like it really was the result of the majority's will, even if his candidacy was created by Putin.

In further good news for Medvedev, his official victory results were not so high that they embarrassed Putin. The latter's highest election win was with 70.1%, and to exceed that might make Medvedev look more popular than his mentor, which would not due. Fortunately,
with 67.%, he scored high, won big, but did not exceed that threshold.

The Dilemma of Voting Results

Today are the presidential elections here in Moscow, and although everyone expects Dimitri Medvedev to win, the big question is at what percentage. There is a major push to get people to vote; advertising is everywhere, including on my metro fare card:

Translation: March 2 - Presidential Election of the Russian Federation

This effort is not just from above; governors, and in the case of Moscow, Mayor Luzhkov, are falling over themselves to get high turnout in order to show support for President Putin (and soon to be Prime Minister) and future President (and current Deputy Prime Minister) Medvedev. This is because high voter turnout numbers are necessary to provide legitimacy to the elections. It was always obvious than whomever Putin chose would be the next president (just as he became president after Yeltsin chose him), and if the elections are to appear legitimate, then a really high percentage of the electorate must vote. That way, when Medvedev wins, he can say that it really was the will of the people, despite the circumstances of his candidacy. If 80% of the country votes, and he wins 70% of the votes, then he has a case. If only 40% votes, then even 80% of that 40% won't be enough to show that he has a true mandate.

At the same time, he doesn't want too much of the actual vote. Putin got almost exactly 70% of the vote during his last election; to exceed that number would embarass his patron (and Prime Minister), and Medvedev has been very cautious not to do that. Even in Medvedev's own campaign billboards (some of which he shares with his patron) Putin stand a little forward.

A [Literal and Figurative] Sign That the Revolution May Be Over For Good

It's an ad from the Moscow metro for ArbatPrestige cosmetics and accessories stores, and says "Great October Price Revolution."

PS The owner of the ArbatPrestige (Arbat is a nice area here surrounding the charming Old Arbat and busy New Arbat streets) chain may have been adhering to free market principles a little too well; he was just arrested for tax evasion. I believe he did it (almost everyone does), but I wonder whom he upset to be arrested now? Maybe someone wanted his stores' real estate?

Update: It turns out that Semyon Mogilevich and Arbat Prestige are not the victims of a real estate raid or some other, more prosaic, type of conflict. That may be part of why he was targeted for prosecution now, but Mr. Mogilevich's history is not that of an honest businessman. He is wawnted by the FBI for racketeering, fraud and money laundering and is also accused of running drug, prostitution, smuggling and stolen art operations. He hasn't been on the run or in hiding - he's been operating quite openly here in Moscow, but now something happened so that he could be arrested. According to the Economist, he is also tied to a company that trades gas between Russian and Ukraine, a very sensitive issue, and one which makes the issue that much more complicated. Shortly after Mr. Mogilevich's arrest Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko came to Moscow to discuss just that, with little real progress.